The good and bad news about a possible El Nino

June 6, 2014

rainFollowing three years of oppressive drought, scientists place the odds of an El Nino bringing a wet winter to California at 82 percent. However, the strength of the possible El Nino has been reduced from strong to moderate. [Mercury News]

El Nino is a band of warm ocean water temperatures that periodically develops off the Pacific coast of South America. El Nino conditions often brings significantly wetter winters to California.

In November, scientists placed the chance of El Niño conditions at 36 percent. Scientists now say the chance of developing an El Nino by this fall is 82 percent, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

However, NOAA scientists said, it looks like a moderate — rather than a strong — El Niño is developing. And while strong El Ninos bring significantly wetter winters to California, moderate El Ninos bring more than average rainfall only about half the time.


13 Comments

  1. SuperDave says:

    Well, it had better rain! Paso is approving new hotels and RV Parks because they think the water problem will be solved by January. If this year brings average or less rainfall- Paso Robles will head down a very bad road to failure to provide enough water to all. Thanks Jim App, and all the App Holes that built with wreckless abandon.

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  2. pigsrule says:

    So the scientists at NOAA really don’t know anything more than if you or I stood outside and looked at the weather. I too like the quote of: “…moderate El Ninos bring more than average rainfall only about half the time.” Hilarious. What a non story.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 2

  3. choprzrul says:

    El Ninos are silly kids stuff compared to ArK Storm. The last one in the early 1860s created a lake in the central valley 300 miles long. Read more here: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/the-arkstorm-californias-coming-great-deluge

    This type of storm pattern would do more damage to California than a whole stack of earthquakes.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 5

  4. shelworth says:

    I’m pretty sure our chances of getting a goodly amount of rain this season is 50:50, either we will, or we won’t.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 21 Thumb down 3

  5. MaryMalone says:

    An El Nino is not necessarily as good thing.

    After three years of significant drought, nonirrigated soil is extremely dry. In areas of high clay especially, this can turn the soil hydrophobic…averse to absorbing water.

    On hillsides this condition can produce unchecked storm runoff, which can result in loss of life and property.

    The best thing that can happen after our three-year drought is an average year of rainfall or even a little less.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 11

  6. Ted Slanders says:

    We Christians can’t have it both ways, so therefore we laugh at Science as entertainment! LOL The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration relative to their prediction of an El Nino might as well try and piss in the Mississippi River to try and change it’s direction, because our Hebrew God is in complete control of California’s weather, period!

    As a Christian, we’re to follow and read ALL of the bible, and not to be spoon fed on Sunday Mornings by some ignorant pastor that doesn’t know his ass from a wild grape! Remember, ALL natural forces are in our Hebrew God’s control (Psalms 29:3-10) The elements are at His command (Psalms 68:9; Jonah 1:4). All the processes of nature are at His direction (Genesis 8:22; Psalms 107:33-34, Psalms 107:38; Jeremiah 31:35).

    Do you think that our Hebrew God is not causing this California drought for a reason? Of course He is! In the same vein as our illustrious godly messenger Pat Robertson proffered a while back, in that the State of Florida had received many hurricanes because Pat said God was upset with Disney World by allowing gays to work there. We pay a price when we go against the bible God!

    Job 38:28 reveals specifically that the Hebrew God as the father of rain. He is able to command storm clouds to serve His purposes! (Job 37:11-13). Yes, sometimes God bathes the earth with gentle rain to show His loving concern and mercy—and other times God uses the weather to correct His people, like the Great Flood where He killed thousands, including innocent babies and fetus’ that drowned as well.

    Deducing it to it’s irreducible primary, California is in a “correction period” with the Hebrew God with this current ongoing drought. More than likely, our God is giving California a “dry-out” period because we have no prayer in our public schools, no teaching of Creationism, too many family planing clinics abound, gay marriage, the Catholics and Jehovah Witnesses bad press of covering up child pedophile cases, and the list goes on!

    More than likely, when the above listed entities are removed, then once again our ever loving and forgiving God will again bathe California in gentile rain, praise!

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  7. racket says:

    “…moderate El Ninos bring more than average rainfall only about half the time.”

    Don’t we get “more than average” rainfall half of the time anyway? Isn’t that the definition of average.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 33 Thumb down 5

    • Theo P. Neustic says:

      Sort of like half the people have below average IQ’s…

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

    • einslo says:

      Sorry racket, that is not the definition of average.
      An average would be the sum of the of a range of data divided by the number of items summed.

      an example: [1,2,1,2,1,3,2,4,2,40]
      this data set would have a sum of 60 over a range of 10 points.
      the average would be 6, but 90% of the range falls below the average.

      I.Q. ratings are a bell curve, and so the average will always be the middle of the data set.

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