Is 2016 the year that…?

June 7, 2016

Presidential politics have already shown that, in 2016, voters are angry. Might this be the year a seemingly entrenched local official gets voted out? Or will a couple incumbents win big again?

2016 is the year that Rep. Lois Capps’ time in office will come to a close. But, who will be competing in November to replace her? Might it be two Republicans? Might it be two Democrats?

Will pre-election polling prove accurate or are election watchers in for big surprises?

Answers are only minutes away. Feel free to comment as the returns are divulged.

8:23 Salud Carbajal and Katcho Achadjian are fast out of the gates in the District 24 congressional race. With the first 6 (of 369) precincts reporting, Carbajal is at 28.9 percent and Achadjian is at 28.6 percent. Justin Fareed is in third at 18.8 percent.

8:30 Same number of precincts reporting (1.6 percent) but new numbers: Carbajal – 32.1 percent, Fareed – 21.4 percent, Achadjian – 21.2 percent, Helene Schneider – 12.9 percent.

8:43 The initial county supervisor returns are in. Six of 143 precincts are reporting.

8:44 District 3: Adam Hill – 42.29, Dan Carpenter – 30.82, Debbie Peterson – 26.76

8:47 District 1: John Peschong – 45.08, Steve Martin – 35.31, John Hamon – 16.38, Dale Gustin – 3.00

8:48 District 5: Debbie Arnold – 54.49, Eric Michielssen – 45.27

8:51 With 12.2 percent reporting in the congressional race, Carbajal – 32.0, Fareed – 21.4, Achadjian – 21.0, Schneider – 13.1

8:57 Turning briefly to California’s presidential primary, Hillary Clinton is up big over Bernie Sanders. Clinton – 63.2, Sanders – 35.6

9:03 As for the best among the rest in the congressional race, SLO County’s Matt Kokkonen and Bill Ostrander are duking it out for 5th place. Kokkonen – 5.4% , Ostrander – 4.8%. The other three candidates in the race are each below 1 percent.

9:12 It looks likely that the local State Assembly race will be between Democrat Dawn Ortiz-Legg and Republican Jordan Cunningham. Ortiz-Legg – 43.4, Cunningham – 38.5. Steve Lebard, the second Republican in the race, has 15.5%. There is no second Democrat in the race. Libertarian Dominic Rubini is at 2.2%. If the results hold, Ortiz-Legg and Cunningham will move on to the November runoff.

9:34 CA Attorney General Kamala Harris is the clear favorite to win the open U.S. Senate seat. Harris has 40.5% of the vote. Among other distinctions, Harris was once crowned the “best looking attorney general in the country” by President Obama. It appears there will be no Republican challenger in the Senate race. Democratic Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez (16.4%) is the only other candidate currently above 10%.

9:39 New SLO County numbers: 13 of 143 precincts reporting. Of course, we will jump to the District 3 race.

9:41 Hill – 41.12, Carpenter – 31.39, Peterson – 26.33

9:43 District 1: Peschong – 45.08, Martin – 35.31, Hamon – 16.38, Gustin – 3.00

9:44 District 5: Arnold – 53.82, Michielssen – 45.94

9:55 Katcho, who is neck and neck with Fareed in the congressional race, is pulling 28.6% in SLO County  but only 14.5% in SB County. Fareed is 23.8% in SB County and 18.8% in SLO County. These are only early returns, though.

10:03 The California Secretary of State website is announcing the 24th District congressional race is a… “**close contest**.” Carbajal – 32, Fareed – 21.4, Katcho – 20.9, with 47 of 369 precincts partially reporting.

10:09 Let’s talk $$ for a minute. Fareed narrowly lost to Chris Mitchum (who narrowly lost to Capps) in the 2014 primary. This go-round, Fareed has raised more than $1 million. Will it make a difference? Money does seem to be making a difference for Carbajal, who is currently the leading fundraiser and vote-getter in the race. Carbajal had placed third in early polling, but he shot up in recent weeks.

10:11 Carbajal – 32.2, Fareed – 21.2, Katcho – 20.6, with 17.1% of precincts partially reporting.

10:14 23.08% of SLO County precincts are reporting. No major movement in the supervisor returns.

10:16 Hill – 42.07, Carpenter – 31.62, Peterson – 26.12

Is that good news for Hill or does that signal the majority of District 3 voters have turned on him? Feel free to chime in.

10:20 Peschong (45%) is maintaining a strong lead in District 1 vote, but it appears he is heading to a runoff with Martin (35%). The returns would have to shift dramatically for Peschong to win the seat in the primary.

10:28 In the all important District 2 Democratic Central Committee race, Tom Fulks is in 4th place out of 6 candidates. Candidates Lara Storm, Cheryl Conway and Lauri Caudil do not have biweekly columns in the Tribune, yet they are beating Fulks. A 4th place finish would not eliminate Fulks, though.

10:30 Carbajal – 32.2, Fareed – 20.8, Katcho – 20.6, with 24.4% of precincts partially reporting.

10:35 It’s becoming clear Carbajal (a Democrat) will advance to the runoff and he will face a Republican challenger (Fareed or Katcho). Remember, thanks to Abel Maldonado and others, there can now be Democrat-Democrat or Republican-Republican matchups in the general election.

10:43 What do SLO County voters think of Hillary Clinton? Thus far, 52.90% of Democrats are supporting her. It’s unclear how many independents and Republicans dislike Trump enough to vote for her in November. Bernie Sanders, who is now all but eliminated, is doing better in SLO County (45.16%) than statewide (37.4%). Trump is getting 74.62% of the SLO County vote and 77.6% statewide.

10:54 Do Cayucos voters want to raise their yearly fire tax from $100 to $500? It appears no. The tax to fund a full-time fire department is heading for defeat. Current returns: 53.18 – No, 46.82 yes. The measure needs a 67% vote to pass.

10:59 More than half of SLO County precincts are now reporting. Peschong is still at 45%. A Peschong-Martin runoff appears to be set.

11:07 Michielssen is gaining ground on Arnold. With 54.55% of precincts reporting, Arnold – 52.10, Michielssen – 47.66. Arnold’s tally has dropped by 2.39 since the initial returns, and Michielssen’s tally has increased by 1.39. Still, it is unlikely Michielssen can overtake Arnold.

11:09 Arnold – 52.19, Michielssen – 47.57, with 67.83% of precincts reporting

11:10 Hill – 42.27, Carpenter – 31.35, Peterson – 26.15. Hill is heading for a runoff with Carpenter. That could make for a nasty five months of campaigning.

11:13 Fareed’s lead over Achadjian has grown slightly. Fareed – 20.1, Achadjian – 19.3, with 40.9% of precincts reporting.

11:39 Fareed – 20.3, Katcho – 18.6, with 59.3% of precincts reporting

11:45 With Tom Fulks still in 4th place in the 6-person District 2 Democratic Central Committee race, radio host Dave Congalton is weighing in on the DCC competition:

“Tom Fulks is falling behind in the race because of his tacky shirt,” Dave says.

11:53 Money is making a difference. Fareed – 20.5, Katcho – 18.5, with 63.7% of precincts reporting. It does not look like Katcho is on his way to Congress.

12:00 Fareed – 20.4, Katcho – 19.0; 93.5% of precincts reporting

12:02 Ostrander may edge Kokkonen for 5th place. Ostrander – 5.6, Kokkonen -5.3

12:05 Shortly after the clock strikes midnight, 100 percent of SLO County precincts are reporting.

12:08 Cayucos voters have told their firefighters to stop reaching into their pockets.

12:14 Arnold wins, though not in a landslide. Peschong is the most popular pick to replace Frank Mecham on the board of supervisors. Peschong will face Martin in a runoff. Debbie Peterson put up a fight, but it is Carpenter who will be facing off with Hill.

12:46 100 percent of precincts are reporting in the 24th congressional district:

Carbajal – 32.7

Fareed – 20.5

Achadjian – 18.9

Schneider – 14.4

Ostrander – 5.5

Kokkonen – 5.3

Isakson – 1.0

Ubersax – 0.9

Lucas – 0.7