Putting SLO County coronavirus cases in perspective

August 7, 2020

Gordon Mullin

OPINION by GORDON MULLIN

Yes, all COVID-19 deaths matter. As well, all deaths matter.

I was thinking about this recently and wondering about death. At 73, it’s often a topic my aging brain brings up. And how can one not in these times? The relentless counting of COVID deaths and new cases is in the Tribune daily. Every day. Discussions on mask protocols, social distancing, the hopes of a vaccine, ICU usage rates, restrictions, closures, openings and a plethora of related stories dominate every news source, every news cycle.

How many contracted the virus yesterday? Through what means? What are the age groupings? We are awash with stories and statistics and they have displaced much of normal considerations from our consciousness and conversations.

And I don’t mind saying, this never-ending assault on my consciousness has changed me. Frankly, I’m fixated. How many times last week did you have a conversation with a stranger in the market or even a friend that did not involve comments on the situation created by COVID? Me? None.

So, I wondered if I had lost all perspective? Can I set this aspect of my life in some other setting to give it clearer context? Is there something missing? Well, yes, I think there is.

There is one other notable number seemingly absent from our conversations and our news and that is the number of deaths in the city or county or state and nation from other causes.

Is it not reasonable to ask how many in our county died from causes other than COVID, say, cancer? Can I compare the two? Should I?

So I asked myself, given that we had our first county COVID case in mid-March and our first death in April, we’re up to 16 now, how many people died in the county during this period of causes other than COVID? What portion of our county wide population died from, as we call it, natural causes? As it turns out, quite a few.

Here’s some statistics for your consideration- all numbers from the SLO County Health Department. In 2019, we had 2,525 deaths. Not an unusual number. In fact in each of the three prior years we had more deaths. The most recent stats from the Health Department puts our total death count through June 2020 at 1,440. So, let’s call it an average of 240 deaths per month in SLO County so far this year.

Let’s start counting in April, when we discovered the first COVID death, a gentleman over 80 with contributing health problems. From then, assuming the death rate from other factors hasn’t changed substantially, there have been 720 deaths from April till June 30th and extrapolating till the end of July, 960 deaths in SLO county- April 1 till July 31. That makes COVID deaths 1.7% of the deaths in our county during that time period.

Now let’s compare. On average, there are 50 or so deaths from Influenza/Pneumonia per year or 1.9%. This year till June 2020- 2.7% Diabetes, in the mid 50’s to 60 deaths per year so around 2% so far in 2020. Suicide, also in the mid 50’s, so another 2%.

To me, one of the surprising numbers is accidents. Over the last 10 years we averaged 138 deaths per year making it roughly 5% of all deaths.

Note these are conservative numbers. The county statistics give only the top 10 causes of death with ‘other’ causes coming in about 25%. Remember, often folks die with multiple ailments. And suicide, which we know is currently rising among the young and the isolated, often is attributed to other categories like accidents, to protect families.

The rest of the top 10 deaths in SLO county numbers are caused by the normal suspects- heart disease, cancer, stroke and respiratory disease. Alzheimers, a fate both my parents died with, is around 5%.

I became interested in these other causes of deaths because I think that we do ourselves no favor by obsessing on the relatively small numbers of deaths from COVID when the odds are much higher, in the long run, that something else is going to put us in the grave.

Further, several of these more frequent causes of our demise, can and should be publicly discussed for they can be mitigated by different public policies and individual actions yet have been driven from the news cycles and our public and political consideration by our fixation on COVID.

For example, in many parts of America, flu and pneumonia, being similar to COVID in causing deaths in normal times, appears to be dropping off due to the precautions mandated by our current situation. Why did we not earlier institute similar precautions for these diseases? Diabetes is often exacerbated by overeating- i.e. obesity. Why take away our children’s educational opportunities to save their lives when we don’t force them to eat less?

I bring this all up not because I have answers to these questions. Far from it. But I personally am more comfortable knowing that the odds of my demise by COVID are small. The blaring news of COVID masks (pun intended) the larger situation leading many to believe that all efforts, including the enormous outpouring of funds from governments at all levels, will protect us from death.

It won’t.

Yes, I understand that not taking measures to contain COVID would, by definition, mean that more people would have gotten sick and some portion of those would have died- from COVID. True.

But what happened to the discussion around, say, the deaths caused by diabetes due to obesity?  Why no discussion?

For me, these numbers from our county Department of Health, oddly, give me some degree of comfort.  I am less overwhelmed by COVID news. I don’t have to assume the sky is falling because it’s not.

Finally, as a suggestion to our County’s Health Department. When you give us the number of our citizens who have died from COVID to date, this year, please also give us the total of folks who have died from other causes. Give us that context. Don’t just add to emotional turmoil. Give us a yardstick to measure the overall risk. That’s your job too. Isn’t it?

Again, for me, this view of our world makes more sense; gives me more comfort; eases my mind and soul.

I hope it does yours as well.


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Publishing comparative “cause of death” statistics will induce a fatalism, similar to concepts that enable those that still choose to smoke. It serves no purpose, and undermines collective resolve and discipline.

Instead why not minimize personal, familial and business COVID risk through a few simple, and yes collective, i.e., community wide, interim lifestyle decisions? The same type of decisions, we individually and collectively make to avoid or mitigate other health risks. If not for us, how about for the sake of protecting our social workers, health care workers, police officers and fire personnel? They are the ones who so nobly and selflessly put up with our poor choices.


It was really nice to read something positive…..Thanks


this is not positive, this is putting your head in the sand. this is a dangerous article.Easy to wright these kind of comments when you are staying home and getting paid.Ask groceries store workers if they like that.


Gordon will be interviewed Monday at 5:05 p.m. on News/Talk 920 KVEC (assuming he doesn’t get COVID first).


Sorry to say Davey, there is no need for the final line of your invitation. Inappropriate at best.


Pretty sure it was a joke. Don’t take things so seriously. Life is to short.


Yes, I understand that not taking measures to contain COVID would, by definition, mean that more people would have gotten sick and some portion of those would have died – from COVID.


That’s kind of the whole point. We’re still trying to control potentially uncontrolled exponential growth of the virus.


Give us that context. Don’t just add to emotional turmoil. Give us a yardstick to measure the overall risk.


The context is that we’re monitoring this one thing because it can potentially grow exponentially the moment we stop taking the current precautions. Alzheimers, stroke, and diabetes are not going to grow exponentially.


But what happened to the discussion around, say, the deaths caused by diabetes due to obesity? Why no discussion?


People are still having these discussions. You want all deaths elevated to the level of monitoring that we have in place for a virus that can, again, grow exponentially and for which the county currently has additional public health orders and protocols in effect?


Health officials are monitoring risk. COVID-19 risk has a much higher potential upper bounds then the other risks you mention. It’s irresponsible to tell people that it’s the same or lower risk, on a societal level, then diabetes. Two real problems, two different risks.


Very good article. You are right – when you look at COVID-19 in relation to everything that can kill you – it probably does not rank very high. Above being hit by lightning or shark bite; but well below many other things; cancer, car wreaks, guns and many others.

So what is the big allure with COVID-19? Its new and not much is known about it. People generally do not like new and unknown things. We want to think we are in control – and we don’t know how to control COVID-19 yet.

Remember back in early 80’s when AIDS was a new thing. People, particularly gay people, were

scared to death (no pun intended). Statistics were being published every day about how many were dying, etc. etc. Today AIDS is still with us, people still die from AIDS; but we have discovered ways to treat it and to decrease the death rate from it.

Look at gun deaths in this country – suicides and mass shootings. Suicides don’t seem to make the news much, but mass shootings do. Every time there is one, that is all you hear for a while, for a long while if happened at a school or nightclub. Lots of talk about what needs to done, etc. etc.; but really nothing gets done, and life goes on.

So very likely, something similar will happen with COVID-19. It probably never can be eradicated, it will be with us for ever; just like measles, AIDS, the flu, and many, many other things. The human species will learn to live with it. Mitigate it some what with a vaccine or other treatments, but never completely end it. It will likely eventually ‘fade’ into the background as just another of those things that can kill us.

The real lesson that hopefully can be learned from this is how we, as a nation of many and diverse individuals, can prepare better for the next pandemic. There will be another – and it will scare the bejesus out people, just like COVID-19.

The USA was not prepared for this virus. It was underplayed from Day 1 and mis-managed at all

levels. Hopefully, we will do better for the next one.


Today AIDS is still with us, people still die from AIDS; but we have discovered ways to treat it and to decrease the death rate from it.


This isn’t really a thing we’ve figured out yet with COVID-19. So, as a opposed to a shark bite, vigilance is required in order to prevent the spread.


Also, people now take care not to spread HIV. Please don’t trivialize the level of care that is still required to prevent the spread of COVID-19 by already worrying about “the next one.”


Finally , YES…. I suspect that there is no surge in community mortality among the elderly. In other words, we are doing just fine.


“For example, in many parts of America, flu and pneumonia, being similar to COVID in causing deaths in normal times, appears to be dropping off due to the precautions mandated by our current situation.”


Flash: It’s not flu season. Flu season generally starts in the late fall and progresses through early spring. Scientists are warning that we do not want to have high numbers of COVID infection at the same time as flu season begins. That could definitely act as a double edged sword.


And, by the way, we have vaccines for flu and the highest number of flu deaths in one year was about 80k a few years ago. COVID will most likely claim well over 200k by the end of this year.


And, yes, Gordon, your odds of dying from this are very, very low. After all, you’re white with what I guess is stable and probably above average wealth. This thing is more likely to prey on farmworkers, prison inmates, the poor, Latinos, blacks and a bunch of other people that I’m guessing are not part of your life.


But, Gordon, please wear your mask.


Wow! I didn’t know the the virus could single out victims by ethnicity and wealth. It’s more dangerous than we thought. Damn.


According to the Wall Street Journal, Latinos make up 39% of California’s population but represent 55% of those infected by COVID. For reasons I won’t bore you with, this pandemic affects communities of color and which lack wealth far more than it does white men such as Gordon Mullin. Don’t believe me, look it up.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-covid-19-cases-surge-latino-communities-feel-the-brunt-11594632601


Thank you Gordon! You have reassured me that common sense still exists


You can be in a hot tub, have sex with, thumb wrestle, play canasta, Gun rummy, have shouting matches, bbq, work in the garden with a person with Alzheimer’s, diabetes, a heart condition, etc. etc. etc. and you won’t die. If they ALSO have a contagious virus, not only can YOU DOE, I can die and my neighbors, my clergy, my grocer, my dmv clerk. A contagious disease can kill others.


And every time you get behind the wheel of your car, you put me and my family and my friends and my coworkers and my mailman and my auto mechanic at risk of dying.