The collateral damage from the war on oil

March 24, 2026

Andy Caldwell

OPINION by ANDY CALDWELL

I am hoping that none of you are fooled into believing that the recent gasoline price spikes at the pump are due to the war with Iran, because nothing could be further from the truth as it effects California.

Our problem is not the war with Iran, but the war on oil.

I, and many others, such as Katy Grimes from the California Globe, have been reporting for the past year that USC has predicted our gas prices are going to hit $8 per gallon. Why?

Because our state government, beginning 20 years ago, declared a war against fossil fuels.

We told you all along that this war would end up becoming a war on consumers, maybe now you will believe us?

The war on oil was three-fold.

First, they started to ban drilling for oil in California. That meant there was less oil going to refineries so that they could produce gasoline and diesel.

Second, they started charging the gasoline refineries billions of dollars in extra charges to keep operating through California’s Cap and Trade program.

Third, they sought to ban the sale of gas-powered vehicles in the state, along with natural gas hookups in homes for water heaters, stoves, and cooktops.

So, you had a war on production, refining, and consumption.

So, what happened?

The producers shut down their operations! They flat out quit and left the state.

Several refineries are now shut down and three more have warned Gov. Gavin Newsom that they are going to shut down too because they don’t have enough fuel to keep their operations going and they can’t afford the ever-increasing fees.

Not only that, but there was also one pipeline that was used to move oil from one end of the state to the other. It too has shut down.

Why isn’t Newsom panicking?

Because this was their plan all along.

Years ago, these activists admitted they wanted gasoline to become unaffordable to force you to drive an electric vehicle.

Well, guess what, we don’t have enough electricity or charging stations for everyone to go all electric. In fact, we not only lack sufficient electricity generation, we also don’t have the ability to transmit and distribute the additional electricity to our homes and businesses.

In other words, the entire grid is grossly inadequate to handle the demand of our going all-electric. If the enviro-whackos and their friends in the legislature had been serious about transitioning to all-electric, they should have been working (and spending billions) on the grid rather than high speed rail!

Meanwhile, Trump has ordered Sable to resume production of their offshore rigs and their onshore processing facility. Despite the rising price of gas, you can expect everybody and their mother to follow with lawsuits.

There is also the distinct possibility that some agencies will levy incredible fines for every day of production without the requisite permits from local and state agencies that constitute a poke in the eye to Trump’s application of the Defense Production Act.

Regardless, nothing is going to change, even if gasoline hits $8 to $10 per gallon, as predicted. California is determined to transition away from gasoline and other fossil fuels faster than our economy and consumers can withstand to live without it.

In all wars, there is the phenomenon of collateral damage, and you are it!

Andy Caldwell is the executive director of COLAB in Santa Barbara County and host of The Andy Caldwell Radio Show, weekdays from 3-5 p.m. on  FM 98.5, FM 99.5, AM 1240, AM 1290 and FM 96.9.

 


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No one is buying your rhetoric, Andy.


Keep deleting my comments btw


You’re ability to understand facts is clearly limited.


This ephin w/s needs an editing button KAREN!


*Your ability…


Facts in an opinion piece don’t mean anything. You know that.


Per Google: California gets 2/3 of it’s oil from Columbia, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, Alaska. 10% of it’s gasoline comes from Bahamas, India, South Korea.


The special blend tree hugger bull feces gas is the cause of this Libocrat nonsense.


Ironic that this “ opinion “ comes on the heels of a historic heat wave in March. The warmest sea temps in March. The warmest winter ever recorded in California.and not surprisingly the lowest/ non existent snow pack.

Environmental wackos with all their crazy science stuff…


You forgot the back-to-back “polar vortex” in the upper mid West, to the East, and to the South. With cold temps 20-30 degrees lower than average, and record 3′-4′ of unprecedented snow in most areas.


I know, I know. It’s all because of the unregulated use of diesel and coal power generation, that in the 1700’s was pushed by “big coal” and Ben Franklin to keep his stoves burning 24/7, that has created the lack of Co2 that we desperately need to keep temps even, and plants green……or something.


I didnt forget anything. Last time I checked his opinion piece was about California and its environment wackos.

I know, the witchcraft of science scares the maga crowd. All hail the orange dotard.


For fun, I threw this opinion piece into an AI, the prompt “rate the quality of this argument”, here what Copilot’s AI returned:


Argument Quality Rating: 3 out of 10


1. Strengths (why it’s not a 0)

✔ Clear narrative structure

The piece has a beginning, middle, and end. It identifies a cause, describes consequences, and ends with a conclusion.

✔ Strong emotional appeal

It’s written to energize readers and create a sense of urgency. That’s effective for persuasion within an already‑aligned audience.

✔ Identifies real issues

Some underlying topics are legitimate:



  • refinery closures

  • regulatory pressure

  • grid capacity challenges

  • California’s unique fuel market


Those are real factors worth discussing.


2. Weaknesses (why it scores low)

A. Factual accuracy problems

Several claims are:



  • unsupported

  • exaggerated

  • contradicted by available data

  • attributed to the wrong sources


When an argument rests on shaky factual ground, its persuasive power drops dramatically.

B. Logical fallacies

The editorial relies heavily on:



  • post hoc reasoning (“X happened after Y, so Y caused X”)

  • slippery slope predictions

  • intentionality fallacies (claiming to know policymakers’ motives)

  • false cause (ignoring global oil markets)

  • overgeneralization


These weaken the argument’s credibility.

C. Overstated certainty

Statements like “nothing could be further from the truth” or “this was their plan all along” are rhetorically strong but logically weak without evidence.

D. Inflammatory language

Terms like “enviro‑whackos” reduce the argument’s seriousness and make it easier for critics to dismiss.

E. Missing nuance

California’s fuel market is influenced by:



  • global crude prices

  • refinery outages

  • seasonal blends

  • supply chain constraints

  • state regulations

  • The editorial attributes everything to a single cause, which oversimplifies a complex system.


3. Overall Assessment

Persuasiveness to a neutral or skeptical reader: Low

Persuasiveness to an aligned audience: Moderate

Factual reliability: Weak

Argument structure: Clear but unsupported

Rhetorical style: Emotional, not analytical

Hence the 3/10.


Ouch. My favorite part of the analysis is “It’s written to energize readers and create a sense of urgency. That’s effective for persuasion within an already‑aligned audience.” That seems to work in this neck of the woods.


Ugh, my apologies for the formatting. Using copy and paste straight from AI appears to add a bunch of spaces between lines.


No, its a brilliant factual rebuttal to Andies Opinion piece, which always infactual propogandized nonsense.


Using AI, is far from “factual”.


I love, love, love this comment. I must have read and re-read it 20 times.


A good portion of what your say is true. Too bad your you start with a lie. The entire nation’s cost for gas has skyrocketed because of the war.

No one would have expected that they attack shipping lanes and close the strait. Except for everyone who has gamed this out in advance.

TACO has already started.

California won’t be the cause of the helium and fertilizer shortage caused by this will thought our war, but I am sure you will find a way.


BTW. The Epstein files are still there. Dripping cringe worthy details.

We are not fooled.


None of REAL American Patriots have forgotten that had prices in CA in particular just 2.5 years ago were at these price points without real reason.


We have photos of gas prices in the time frame from all and SLO County. You TFS afflicted clowns have ZERO leg to stand on.


If the DemoNcrats in this state would allow for true capitalism growth, WE would have the necessary refineries in this state to meet our demand.


YOUR LIES do not work on the actual informed.


#SaveCalifornia

#NEVERVoteDemoNcratAgain

#WalkAway


#VoteRepublican2026


Edited version on this cruddy w/s:


None of us REAL American Patriots have forgotten that the gas prices in CA from just 2.5 years ago were at these price points, without real reason.


We have photos of gas prices in that aforementioned time frame from all over SLO County. You TDS afflicted clowns have ZERO leg to stand on other than feelings.


If the DemoNcrats in this state would allow for true capitalism and growth, WE would have the necessary refineries in this state to meet OUR demand.


YOUR LIES do not work on the actual informed.


#SaveCalifornia

#NEVERVoteDemoNcratAgain

#WalkAway


#VoteRepublican2026


From February 1, to today (25 Mar.), the rest of the nation, on average, went up .88¢ per gallon.


California went up, on average, $1.31 per gallon.


We’re even higher than Hawaii, which imports EVERYTHING except sugar and Pineapples.


Yeah, it’s a leftist state of California thing.


As they used to say in Rome many centuries ago (and it still is true), “Numquam Fiducia Liberales.”


Trump starts a war with Iran, Iran blocks oil exports, prices across the country immediately go up, but the prices going up in California are just a coincidence and are Democrats’ fault? Right. That makes perfect sense.


Iran slowed 20% of the oil market. This will have an impact on those countries that specifically buy Iranian oil, but should not for the USA, as we do not import Iranian oil.


This is about market speculation, and the consequences of manipulating the market. The shipping insurers have raised the cost of shipping through the Strait to be prohibitive, which reflects on the many more millions in insurance fees for each tanker getting through. The world has plenty of oil, the USA has more than it needs.


So: Iran slows oil. Oil prices rise across the country and around the world. Your conclusion is that gas prices rising across the country is because of California Democrats and it’s all just a coincidence? That’s a special kind of logic you have there.


Is this what super winning looks like? More than just the regular winning?


So we start a war (illegally) with Iran, prices on oil immediately shoot up across the country, but that’s just a coincidence. Are you seriously brain-damaged? Are you just rage-baiting. Are you trying to get appointed to Trump’s cabinet? Why on earth does anyone post your ridiculous takes?


I love the downvotes without any argument against it. Why would California Democrat policies that have been in place for years magically cause gas prices to rise in Texas (for example) at the exact same time as the illegal war in Iran? Anyone? Anyone? That’s what I thought. Just keep sucking on that bloated orange Cheetoh.