New local economic forecast based on misleading numbers

November 6, 2010

Brad Kemp

By KAREN VELIE

Economists hired by business leaders in San Luis Obispo County said the local economy appears to be showing signs of recovery while providing seemingly misleading numbers to attendees at the first annual Central Coast Economic Forecast held at Embassy Suites on Friday.

According to Brad Kemp, an economist with Beacon Economics in Los Angeles, the local unemployment rate had fallen from 10.7 percent in August 2009 to 9.9 percent in August 2010, demonstrating a county in the early stages of economic recovery. However, the adjusted unemployment rate for August 2010 is 10.3 percent, according to the state’s Employment Development Department report.

Each month, the state provides preliminary unemployment numbers that often change after further review. In addition, the numbers regularly zig zag up and down throughout the year.

Kemp told the audience that employment gains in the manufacturing and construction industries provide further evidence that the county’s economic downturn appears to have ended.

However, according to the state’s Employment Development Department’s monthly reports, approximately 400 people lost jobs in the construction industry from August 2009 through August 2010. During the same time period, the number of local manufacturing jobs remained primarily unchanged.

Kemp also said that tourism driven by the area’s wine industry was helping to fuel the economy. He did not mention that 700 people employed in the hospitality industry lost their jobs from August 2009 through August 2010.

The September preliminary unemployment rate sits at 10 percent.


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Sally

They sound like the Obama administration, they are trying to convince you things are looking good when they are still in the the toilet


zaphod
R.Hodin

The full unemployment rate is something like 18%, including the underemployed who can’t find a full time job they’re trained in. That’s 1 in 6.


BeenThereDoneThat

These guys are such BOZO’S!! I read in the paper a couple days ago they got this group to replace the prior UCSB economic group. That was the group led by Bill Watkins. I still remember Mr. Bill (yea just like the one on SNL) telling business in his report around ’05, that by ’09 median housing prices in places like Paso would be around $800,000-900,000. It was in the Trib if anyone doubts this.


Now you have these idiots saying construction is going. HMM??? Go ask someone in construction how it is going.


So we replace one idiot, with another. Local business would be better served by someone else.


keithb

Anyone that presents a single “median home price” figure isn’t telling (or understanding) the entire picture. Starting in 2007, we’ve had 4 median home prices; REO, Short-Sale, non-foreclosures, and All. The ones that the media and analysts use is “All”. And when the “All” median home price increases, we hear (and will continue to hear) that the market is rebounding but that might not be the truth.


Here’s where we’re at in SLO County through October for median home prices and (the percentage of sales):


All- $400K (100%)

Non-foreclosures $450K (61%)

ShortSale — $368K (14%)

REO – $325K (25%)


When we start seeing less foreclosures (as a percentage of total sales), the “All” median home price will rise. But that won’t necessarily mean that values are increasing. The non-foreclosure median could still be decreasing. You can’t just look at the “All” median home price to make statements about what the market is doing until the foreclosures are a very small percentage of total home sales. .


unlisted

Thanks for the stats, keith. It’s always difficult telling whether values are really going up or down in our small market due to variations in the product mix – condo vs sfd, new vs existing, small vs large, and location.


CCWheelers

Nice job CCN.


Too bad that the other media here looks at this as a negative, unproductive piece of news.

Why show people the Ugly Truth when the Beautiful Lie makes it sound so much better?


Welcome to the Fantasy Land… Where Farts smell like Roses.


aye-caramba

I met these guys awhile back when they were preparing for this. They were absolutely unprepared, did

not do the necessary background work and seemed to want to deliver a pre-determined message. They were impressive in that they did not want to listen, gave generic, canned input and were just sophomoric.


It smelled deceptive.


here are the real questions..

1. Whose relative or friend from government hired these guys?

2. How much did they stiff the county for?


willie

Well put

Many old school attachments are the company’s failing

Among business, political, religious leaders, phlosophers, even the paranormal, they all agree this is an era of higher consciousness.

CNN is on track, all they need is incremental donation to hold out long enough to make their quality realized.


keithb

Brad called me back in May to ask about the local Real Estate market. He said he was presenting a report for the UCSB economic forecast in a few days in Paso Robles. What he thought was going on in the local real estate market was inaccurate. I don’t know what he ended up presenting. He has a 310 area code so not sure how well he knows SLO County.


TacomaRose

Doesn’t anyone in this glorious county know how to tell the truth?


Paladin

Of course they do!! But, the sun was in their eyes, they tripped over a rock, their shoelace was untied, “my glasses have a crack in them” there was a hole in their pocket “only had one beer” and “I was just keeping that dope for a friend”!


SLOBIRD

You forgot the “wife” syndrome…


jeremy fisher

Anybody with even half a brain would know that this is bologna. Why would anything be any better. None of the basics of the economy have changed, in fact, things are getting worse if one takes off their rose colored glasses.


jeremy fisher

The dollar is likely to be devalued by 20% due to the fed and we’re entering into a currency war with China and Russia, to say nothing of the rapidly climbing oil prices due in a large extent to the fed’s policies.


racket

Nice job, CCN, of debunking the report. I like to see you — and the other news outlets — fact-check data like this.


Bob

Are you surprised!


This is the central coast where integrity is the first rule of business to be thrown under the bus.


hotdog

Such as Paul Brown’s frantic claims of ‘Integrity’ while displaying false info in the voters guide and campaign material? Downtown businessman? Member of a band! Somehow managed to get his ex wife’s restraining order against him dismissed a year early so he could conveniently ‘forget’ to mention that during his campaign. Brown continually said small business is the backbone of SLO, yet when on the council he worshipped at the alter of BIG business. Both he and Carter are famous for ignoring the will of the public while sitting up on the City Council dais-yet both are adept at fooling the public into voting for them.

Or Parkinson’s dirty primary campaign for Sheriff, buying false slate mailer ballots to confuse the voters, violating his signed agreement to run a clean and clear campaign.

Integrity is, as Bob says, the first victim in any conflict of interest.


Strider

Paul owns a popular downtown bar, easily qualifies as businessman: not false.

Paul is a singer, and is / was in a swing band: not false.

This is a fact, I lived practically next door.


correct your talking points.