Poll shows District 3 supervisor seat up for grabs

May 14, 2016
Adam Hill

Adam Hill

By CCN STAFF

The San Luis Obispo County’s District 3 race is close, with none of the candidates likely to garner 50 percent of the votes needed to win the June 7 primary election. If no one gets 50 percent of the vote, the top two candidates move on to the November election.

SLO City Councilman Dan Carpenter

Dan Carpenter

A CalCoastNews poll of registered voters conducted May 14 shows Supervisor Adam Hill with 22 percent, followed by San Luis Obispo Councilman Dan Carpenter at 18 percent and former Grover Beach mayor Debbie Peterson with 13 percent. Almost half of survey respondents, 47 percent, have not decided who they plan to vote for.

CalCoastNews identified each candidate only by name, and not by any other information used to describe them that might influence voters’ choices.

CalCoastNews surveyed 407 District 3 voters on May 14 using automated calls to land lines and cell phones. The margin of error for the survey was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Debbie Peterson

Debbie Peterson

The bulk of District 3 voters, 56 percent, live in San Luis Obispo. Next in line is Grover Beach at 21 percent, Pismo Beach at 17 percent, rural Arroyo Grande at 6 percent and Avila Beach at 3 percent. District 3 has 788 more Democrats than Republicans. Hill and Peterson are Democrats and Carpenter is not affiliated with a political party.

Three San Luis Obispo County supervisor seats are currently up for grabs, leaving the future direction of the county up to the voters. Aside from the District 3 competition, there is a four-way race for the District 1 seat Supervisor Frank Mecham is vacating and two candidates vying for the District 5 seat currently held by Supervisor Debbie Arnold.

CalCoastNews is also conducting polls for the District 1 and District 5 elections.


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Jorge Estrada

Dan or Debby would be a breath of fresh air and if I could vote in their district my vote would go for Dan. I have not followed Adam’s career on the Board but from what I read his enemy have grown to dysfunctional proportions. For this reason alone, I would predict Adam’s failure in the popular vote to be rehired. This expense (dysfunctional government) to the taxpayers adversely effects the benefits we should be receiving from government. Is this be the real reason why the Board of Supervisor meetings are not broadcasted on radio?


TeeItUp

yes no one wants to do it radio wise


TaxMeAgain

ABA= Anybody But Adam.


EducateDistrict3

District 3 residents should take note that If Hill continues, there will be a significant push toward major development in the next four years, a vision shared alongside SLO’s Mayor Jan Marx.


KSBY reported Sunday that a $500K construction project will soon begin that will widen Buckley Road, presumably to accomodate the planned 720-home Avila Ranch (http://bit.ly/1rOqvL3).


SLO’s potable water supplies are certain to go bone dry in the coming years if drought conditions continue and drastic water conservation measures aren’t met.


We’re counting on you, District 3, to make the right decision; a decision that will bear significant weight on the coming years for the future of our drinking water supplies. It’s all in your hands.


TeeItUp

Your are correct.


Remember Adam Hill created with his vote the Urgency Ordinance on Water!!!! Which goal was to grab the north county basin water and sell it….remove the rights from the overliers


He is a liar and a bate and switch.


He is ONLY going to line his pockets with Developer’s money. He does not care about any of us. He is a person who sells his soul to the highest bidder.


I hate the 720 homes going in. Jan Marx and Adam Hill you should live in them and get your life stuffed into cramped quarters. Be one with what you say you love. Do not live like the private property type people. Go live in a shoe and ride your bike everywhere. Where is your bike riding Adam Hill??????


You all put the BOOT of the Gov on the voters’ THROAT and you need to go!!!


Elect a human not a robot and elect Dan Carpenter for supervisor.


EducateDistrict3

Ahh, now we know why SLO City isn’t so concerned about it’s future drinking water supply.


Perhaps they are friends with Stewart Resnick, the billionaire who owns and exports Figi water, owns Justin Winery & Vineyards, and now has new vineyards planted in Creston which raise serious concerns.


The water capacity of the Paso Basin has been under significant stress during just the past few years, and some residents’ wells have gone dry. No wonder the residents voted a stern ‘No’ to the proposed water district destined to be run by an unfamiliar board. Hill and Gibson were in utter grief and completely dissapointed.


just the facts

Hey EducateDistrict3…please call family, friends and colleagues in the 3rd District and educate them with facts as to why they need to vote for Dan Carpenter for Supervisor.

The entire county needs Dan Carpenter on that dais of the Board of Supervisors come January 2017! Dan The Man!


discloser

In that case, sounds like Peterson is the right choice. She’s way ahead of Carpenter in her overall knowledge of the water situation and has offered real solutions. She hasn’t chased Hill’s donors for funds as Carpenter has. Rather, after personally knocking on over 8,000 doors to hear from voters, she has put forth a carefully researched platform for water and infrastructure based on the concerns of those she will represent.


don the beachcomber

With a margin of error of 5%, Peterson could be at 18% and Carpenter at 13%


just the facts

Hey Don the Beachcomber…have you noticed that Adam Hill attacked his opponent, Dan Carpenter, for some 8 weeks with radio ads and then sent two mailers again attacking Dan The Man!


Have not heard or seen any such attacks toward Debbie Peterson.


Adam Hill knows who his threatening opponent is…Dan Carpenter!


And here is why:

*Dan Carpenter represents close to 50% of the population in the 3rd district

*County of SLO population is 276,000 (as of 2013)

*Each county district has population of 55,000

*City of SLO population is 45,000

*61% of City of SLO is in the 3rd district or some 27,500 population

*Dan Carpenter currently represents 27,500 of the 55,000 in the 3rd district

*Dan was re-elected to the City Council of San Luis Obispo

*Dan is currently Vice Mayor of the City of San Luis Obispo


Vote for Dan Carpenter for Supervisor on or before June 7.


discloser

Hill is far too clever to attack in just one way. He is attacking Peterson – in the way that has worked for him in the past and is well documented – by whispering campaigns and email threats to the jobs of those who support her.


Here is why:


*Peterson represents close to 50% of the population in the 3rd district

*Population outside SLO in District 3 is some 27,500

*Peterson currently represents 27,500 of the 55,000 in the 3rd district

*Peterson was re-elected to the City Council as the first directly elected female Mayor of Grover Beach

*Peterson successfully founded and built numerous businesses

*Peterson shepherded the City of Grover Beach AND her own business through the toughest economic times most of us have known, balancing the books and passing many important projects

*Dan did not add value to his own businesses or the SLO Council during the same time frame

*Dan’s business went bankrupt during good economic times


Vote for Debbie Peterson for Supervisor now. Debbie’s track record speaks volumes for her ability to manage through difficult times and get things done.


unlisted

You’d better look at the real facts. Dan only got 31.16% of the vote the last time he ran for city council, so he’s unlikely to get all of the votes in the city. See http://tinyurl.com/jdx3v7q.


He was the #1 vote getter of the five people on the ballot, so he should do well.


TeeItUp

your mathematical training must be “common core”.


In other words you are not math capable. In a math model you either have a 5% error on one data point not manipulate them all to suit an outcome in a random direction.


Dan could win out right as well if you play the “common core” math technique that there is no real answer, it can be whatever you want or can manipulate……….


kayaknut

And Mr. Hill 17%


TeeItUp

So what do these results mean they mean the following


Projection based on Poll


22% + 19.5% = 41.5% in June for Adam Hill


18% + 16% = 34% in June for Dan Carpenter


13% + 11.5% = 24.5% in June for Debbie Peterson


Meaning: Adam Hill 41.5% of the vote and Dan Carpenter 34% of the vote


Run Off In November with Adam Hill and Dan Carpenter


If Debbie stayed out Dan would have theoretically have 58.5% in June .


RonHolt

Your math is mere speculation as there are far too many undecideds to make a straight extrapolation. But for the sake of argument, lets take your theory and try a different conclusion using the same logic.


If Dan stayed out of the race, Debbie would “theoretically” win in June with 58.5% of the vote too.


The one thing all the Carpenter supporters on this website forget is that big difference in people who vote “D” vs. those who vote “R” in District 3. Even if they might wish for a better choice than Hill, they will be more likely to make that choice for a Democrat than for an “Independent” with a Republican political view.


In truth, the differences between Peterson and Carpenter as they pertain to county government would likely be minor, but most voters will not be aware of that and will stay with their traditional choice processes so those “undecided” votes will likely go to either Hill or Peterson more than Carpenter.


TeeItUp

You failed to read the word PROJECTED this is standard poll interpretation math


Also you have not made the phone calls I and others have made.


There are Democrats and Republicans and Independents that do not like the boot of the government on their throat.


All people want choice and to be treated with respect. You are not counting the large number of Democrats that have seeked Dan out over many years. His supporters are the most diverse group I have ever worked with and I admire their ability to choose honesty over the manipulation and lies.


There should be not difference really in these three designations because we appear to live about the same. Here is a huge opportunity to heal our county and address real problems without hidden agendas.


Hill has been a threat to business people and a mafia style player.


He talks about leadership and how he can get a 5 – 0 voting on the board. Well big deal if your method is by threats then that is not leadership. Discourse – vigorous discussion is healthy and needed to keep the lies and cover up away.


Adam Hill cannot lead unless he threatens people into submission.


Adam Hill beat down Debbie Peterson and she lost for Mayor.


Dan Carpenter has grassroots support from all type of people and party designations.


Dan is the Man to Beat The Bully…..


polypro

Nonsense, Tee.


In 2008 PETERSON got TWO AND A HALF TIMES more votes in Grover Beach than Hill. Dan got only 38% more votes than Hill.


Even when she lost to cheater Shoals, PETERSON got 10% more votes than Hill got in Grover Beach and Grover Beach has the second largest voting population in the District.


just the facts

Ronholt says: “Differences between Peterson and Carpenter,,, would likely be minor” WRONG! One such example: Dan opposes the proposed 1/2 cent countywide sales tax. Debbie supports it. I call that a major difference!


kayaknut

Why stop there if Debbie Peterson and Adam Hill both dropped out Dan Carpenter would have 99.9%????????????


Kaiser Bill

Your projections of Carpenter getting all of Petersen’s vote is based on the same fallacy the Never Trump losers deluded themselves with when Donald Trump was getting 35 percent of the vote in a crowded field of contenders. The Never Trump Cucks thought Trump had a ceiling of 35 percent.


It turned out, Trump got some of the votes of his rivals once they quit. Trump easily won every race once he was only running against Cruz and Kasich.


The same applies to this Supervisor race. If Petersen does not make the run off, Carpenter will not just have all her votes transferred to him. Hill will get some of Petersen’s votes as well.


TeeItUp

OK Kaiser Bill


speculations are just that. If they voted for Debbie P because they want to retire the Bully then they will transfer to Dan Carpenter.


If they are in love with Adam Hill but just like Debbie P better then they would vote for Adam Hill. (If he knew he would punish them good thing voting is private)


So of course there are all different types of voters and some will go to Adam Hill and guess what some that voted for Adam Hill will also flip and vote for Dan because they finally believe that Dan Carpenter can WIN and they like to be with a winner.


So KBill people are a curious creatures. Logic usually does not hold with 25%.


For the sane and aware Dan Carpenter for supervisor is the only right choice.


Dan The Man


south

D3 voters, given the choice of an R or a D typically pick the latter regardless of philosophy. If Peterson is out, conventional thinking is that Hill picks up most of her votes.


To overcome that bias, Carpenter needs to court Peterson’s voters by aligning more with her now so that in a run-off they will come with him and not knee-jerk to the D.


discloser

Except that Dan’ supporters, as he does, lean heavily Republican. Debbie’s supporters are evenly distributed – Independents, Democrats and Republicans. That changes everything.


Paso_citizen

Polls may be great, but they also are often wrong. With 47% having not made up their mind; there is huge probability that the primary results will not reflect the poll.


But there is one thing that can be done and will have the best possible outcome.

For the sake of bringing a little sanity back to the BOS; the voters in District 3 need to give Mr. Hill a resounding vote of no confidence and have him not be one of the top two vote getters.


If Hill makes it into the general election cycle, he (and his cronies) will stop at nothing

to get re-elected.


Get rid of him now.


debeddebed

The majority of people in this state, and country, believe in truth, justice, and fairness. They are responsible, and behave as social, moral persons conforming to standard social ethical standards.

Some do not!

Unfortunately, we have an elected person who lacks those principles, lacks integrity,

and consistently bullies others.

That person is San Luis Obispo County Supervisor Adam Hill.

Hill attempted to evade responsibly for his impersonation, by telephone, in an effort to intimidate a citizen with respect to a pending development matter. He later admitted the fraud!

He supports the principles of the United Nations agenda 21 and publicly made that statement

with his signature as a County Supervisor at a meeting hosted by ICLEI in Santa Barbara.

By the way, the United Nations is attempting to create a one world government and that government is not based on The Constitution of United States of America.

An embarrassing and disturbing article “Who is susceptible to conspiracy theory thinking” was published in the New Times Newspaper was written by Hill. At first I dismissed the article as the ramblings of a disturbed, demented mind. But then I realized that it was written by the same bully who has a history of abusive behavior toward people, who express disagreement with him. That article reached national news outlets, including Forbes.

The article was signed by and as ADAM HILL – SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY SUPERVISOR, SAN LUIS OBISPO.

Adam Hill must be censored & removed from office, fire him! The United Nations is a foreign power & I believe it is against the law for an elected representative to make a deal with a foreign government.

Now is your chance to fire Hill.

Elect Dan Carpenter, he is an independent, moral man who deserves our support.

Vote for Dan Carpenter!


PolyProf

The importance of this poll, if believed, is that Carpenter has a legitimate chance to win in a runoff. He needs our money NOW. He needs volunteers NOW. You can bet that Adam Hill is going to use this article to ramp up the negative attacks.


scoopone

I’m for ABH….Anybody But Hill…. but for the record I’m sending another donation to Dan!!