Front Page  »  

Is the Central Coast Still Blue?

October 24, 2025

OPINION by KIMBERLY CALDWELL

On Aug. 20,the New York Times published a noteworthy report entitled “The Democratic Party Faces a Voter Registration Crisis.”

The opening paragraph quickly gained attention in numerous media outlets: “Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.”

That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from.”

Many of my friends were astonished to learn that even deep blue states such as New York and our own California were among the 30 states included in the report. I was curious to determine whether this national and state-level trend was true in our local Tri-Counties.

What I discovered will likely surprise you.

My research, using publicly available data, showed that the coastal counties of San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura, which have been considered Democrat strongholds for more than a decade, are no longer as blue as some people think. In fact, the Democrat Party has less than 50% of the registered voters in each county, and their share of voters has even dropped below 40% in SLO County.

Between October 2022 and October 2024, Republicans in SLO and Ventura Counties registered five times more new voters than their Democrat opponents and Santa Barbara registered more than one-and-a-half times more voters than the Democrats.

 

The above figures highlight a dramatic shift-in-the-making for local politics and caught the eye of California Assemblyman Carl DeMaio, who is also the chairman of Reform California. DeMaio published an article on his blog on Jan. 8 titled “Reform California Releases ‘26 for 2026’ List of Target Seats.”

Within the article, he points out a number of U.S. Congressional, State Senate and State Assembly seats to defend or flip in order to maintain the Republican majority in Wahington D.C., and breakup the Democrat Supermajority in Sacramento.

DeMaio also highlights a “watch list” to add to the list of targeted seats if current trends hold. Two districts from the Central Coast made the watch list, namely, U.S. Congressional District 26 and California Assembly District 42, which are both located within Ventura County.

A month later, on Feb. 10, the California Secretary of State released updated voter registration statistics to capture changes made after the Oct. 2024 report was published. Local Republicans continued to gain significant ground.

In SLO County, the Democrat party lost an astonishing 25 times more voters than Republicans, who lost just 38 people.

Meanwhile, Ventura Republicans registered twice as many new voters as the Democrats, pushing their total of new conservative voters since Oct. 2022 to more than 10,000. Santa Barbara Republicans continued their pace of 1.5 times more new voters than Democrats.

 

Between Feb. 10 and Sept. 5, when the Secretary of State published her latest update, California Republicans registered a net gain of 48,104 voters, while the net gain for Democrats statewide was a mere 190 voters. Locally, the Democrats continued to lose percentage points, albeit at a slower pace in the last six months.

In SLO County, Democrats now hold 38.09% of the county’s registered voters, compared to Republican’s 35.17% and the No Party Preference’s 18.23%.

The congressional and assembly districts that encompass portions of both SLO and Santa Barbara counties, CD-24 and AD-37, are just 1% to 2% points from looking as competitive on paper as the districts that flipped red in the 2024 election. CD-24 is currently represented by Rep. Salud Carbajal (D), who will be challenged by Bob Smith (R) in the 2026 election. AD-37 will be a race between incumbent Gregg Hart (D) and Sari Domingues (R).

Democrats in Ventura now have 42.39% of the county’s voters, compared to 29.29% Republican and 20.46% No Party Preference. The aforementioned districts CD-26 and AD-42 in Ventura County now look as good as or even better on paper than districts that were successfully defended or flipped by Republicans in 2024, such as CD-22 and AD-36. CD-26 will feature Rep. Julia Brownley defending her seat against several challengers heading into the primary contest in June.

AD-42 had been represented by Assemblywoman Jacqui Irwin who is term-limited and cannot run for reelection in 2026, so this will be a wide-open contest for Ted Nordblum (R) and Deborah Klein Lopez (D).

In summary, there will be a couple of exciting races to watch here on the Central Coast in the 2026 and 2028 elections. These statistics aren’t abstract numbers. California is trending towards the right and won a number of races statewide in the last two election cycles, as recapped in this energetic video montage.

Don’t forget to register your friends to vote and encourage them to vote no on Proposition 50 so the voter-approved independent citizens commission’s efforts in making our districts reflect local communities will not be cancelled!

See you at the polls on Nov. 4, 2025.

Kimberly Caldwell is a life-long Central Coast resident. A history major, she graduated from Judson College. She currently works as an accountant for a Central Coast company.

 


Loading...
Subjects:             
Related:


23 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Left-Wing Utopia:

Everybody on earth is safe, healthy happy, educated, and free to pursue their ambitions.


Right-Wing Utopia:

Americans work sixty hours a week at a job they hate with no healthcare, one week of vacation, and everyone else is dead.


Seems like an easy choice to me.


-36

Prop 50 election news: Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon announced yesterday that the Department of Justice would monitor polling sites in California to ensure election integrity to prevent Democrats from cheating.


29

Wasted money, like most of the Trump administration boondoggles. About 80% of Californians will vote by mail.


-13

Who am I to argue with a graduate of Judson College, but this essay seems more like wishful thinking. Yes, people are leaving the Democratic Party, but they’re certainly not flocking to the Republicans. We’re frustrated Independents–frustrated by both political parties. Addis, Carbajal, and Panetta will be re-elected easily. The Democrats will stay in control of Sacramento and Padilla should declare soon for Governor. Don’t know about Prop 50, but it will likely pass with low turnout. California remains Blue.


9

Defeatist need not apply.


Signed,

Multi-generational and still native Californian fighting to return California to its once great status


Californians must VOTE NO ON PROP 50!


#DeathToTheDemoNcratPARTY


25

Ms. Caldwell fails to note that the Central Coast l, and most of California, was traditionally Republican until they started running bat shit crazy candidates such as Andrea Seastrand, Chris Mitchum and, more recently, Andy Caldwell. In fact, during the history of California in the 20th Century, it was only during the FDR era that we had a Democratic rep. In fact, Republicans held the seat for 50 years until Seastrand.


And, by the way, while they are Democrats, it is the Democratic Party. Yes on 50!


-34

It’s ok to be a democrat and or push the socialist agenda forward with Prop 50. Just realize that the reference of bat shit crazy is found in caves and that reference unfortunately exposes where one stands. Please see the sunlight, there is no need to hide, we can still have our republic with a democratic process, just vote YOUR conscience.


0

“The Democratic Party Faces a Voter Registration Crisis.”The passage of Newsom’s Prop 50 will alleviate any such concern.


-30

seems you are missing a few paragraphs explaining why you think it is so.


-1

Not that I’m at all in favor. Try and defeat it with (programmable) voting machines in place.


-5

Exactly…


4

I guess that explains prop 50 huh?


5

Gosh, it’s almost as if lower prices, lower taxes, less regulation, smaller government, a strong economy, lower inflation, low unemployment, a more lethal military, brokering 9 regional wars into peace, forcing foreign tariffs to a standstill, enforcing immigration law toward criminal aliens, and laughing at “No Kings day” is a much better alternative than anything democrats have put forth in the last 160 years…


77

So, how’s it going with that strong economy and low inflation? If Biden were still president, you’d be complaining about it.


-15

Yes, I would still be complaining about Biden’s high inflation and weak economy.


16

and open border!


5

You said, “lower inflation” which is just not true. And as tariffs fully kick in, we will see inflation continue to tick up. Even now, if you talk to farmers they are already paying at least 20% more for equipment and parts with parts often difficult to find because manufacturers and importers won’t pay the tax. Farmers are also being killed by tariffs on the reverse end as midwest soy bean farmers have seen the Chinese market dry up. Maybe they can develop new markets, but that will be hard because the largest consumers other than China are also seeing tariffs go up. Finally, please show me a reputable economist who is not part of the administration that is saying we have a “stong economy.”


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgkzgrmvdrno.amp


-1

Sure! Here’s a fun one!


Here, CBS tries their level best to downplay and piss on Trump’s economy, touting twisted numbers, and quoting hard left sites. Yet, the article finally has to admit the economy is strong and growing.


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fact-checking-trumps-recent-claims-about-the-economy/


3

Good piece, like to see data driven journalism. While we shouldn’t ignore that Democrats have an enthusiasm and branding problem, I would suspect two things:


1. The big Republican gains in 23-24 are probably driven by the fact that the GOP (sorta) had a closed primary that year. For people looking to vote for Trump, DeSantis, Hailey, etc. registering was the only way.


2. There are a lot more independents than there have ever been. However these people aren’t necessarily swing voters, but rather pretty ideologically committed people who don’t like the label of Democrat or Republican – it’s hip to not like labels these days


Lastly I think it would be helpful to see a line graph for change each month as well as a line graph for the numbers overall – a change in a couple hundred/thousand looks big in isolation, but it’s less than 1% of the existing county total


26

I switched to no party not because it is hip, but because the pyubes are milque toast.


Taking a more conservative path, not CAGOP, is the solution.


GOP is not going to fix CA.


-12

It certainly is good news from Ventura County. Folks there are waking up and doing the right thing. Hopefully the trend towards sanity and common-sense gains further momentum in San Luis Obispo County as well. There is no rational reason to align oneself with the ever more extreme leftward shift of the Plantation Party platform.


37
1 2