Poll shows Carpenter with slight lead over Hill

October 31, 2016
San Luis Obispo Councilman Dan Carpenter

San Luis Obispo Councilman Dan Carpenter

In the contentious race for the San Luis Obispo County District 3 supervisor seat, Dan Carpenter has a slight lead over his rival Adam Hill, according to a CalCoastNews poll conducted Sunday.

Among decided voters, San Luis Obispo City Councilman Dan Carpenter holds a 7-point lead over incumbent Supervisor Adam Hill. Carpenter leads with 53.66 percent followed by Hill at 46.33 percent. Of registered voters polled, 29 percent said they were still undecided.

The CCN poll has a margin of error of less than 5.5 points. CCN contracted with a phone survey company to call a randomized list of district voters.

In an Aug. 1 poll, Carpenter led over Hill. Then just a month and a half later, Hill commanded a 6-point lead following a barrage of negative advertising by the Hill campaign.

Carpenter’s latest poll bounce comes after Hill allegedly attempted a pay-to-play shakedown of the Home Builders Association of the Central Coast. In addition, Sam Blakeslee, Jim Duenow and Debbie Peterson publicly denounced Hill for his bullying behavior.

The bulk of District 3 voters, 56 percent, live in San Luis Obispo. Next in line is Grover Beach at 21 percent, Pismo Beach at 17 percent, rural Arroyo Grande at 6 percent and Avila Beach at 3 percent. District 3 has 2.036 more Democrats than Republicans. Hill is a Democrat and Carpenter is not affiliated with a political party.


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phoenix.rising

Time is near and celebrations will abound!


Adam Hill no more


Dan Carpenter the New 3rd District Supervisor!!!!!


Josey Wales

Folks,


Dan Carpenter, YES.


Adam Hill, NO.


John Mack, YES


Caren Ray, NO


LeAnn Akins, YES


Kristian Barneich, NO


Jim Hill, YES


Richard Waller, NO


Immediate AG Water Moratorium, NOW


Just saying,


Josey


Rich in MB

Ah but here is the Game:

Just as Dems will support Corrupt HiLiary.

Just as Repubs will support Crazy El Trumpo.


So to will the Dems in SLO support Adam Hill to “keep the other guy/team from winning”.


Even the intellectual talkers among us like to lecture us rightly about the evils of Adam Hill, while at the same time in the same breath will tell us how they are voting for HiLiary because they want their team/side to win.


It’s funny watching the Hypocrisy, even funnier is that they don’t see it.


south

Just remember that with one week left, undecideds are typically uninformed because they don’t care or are too busy. If they vote at all, 75% of that 29% will statistically vote for the incumbent. It will be a squeaker.


obispan

The vast majority of the 29% undecided aren’t sitting around saying to themselves “Hmmm, Adam or Dan, hmmm…”. They are people who are largely ignorant of the race and pay little attention to local politics. They will be there to vote for Clinton or Trump and on the state propositions. They will vote for the local incumbent in most cases.


shishkabob141

Sad isn’t it, that a group of largely ignorant voters may well decide important races?


Josey Wales

Ladies & Gentlemen,


By now, we all know the deal: reject Adam Hill and his political corruption. Adam Hill lacks basic civility and we must reject his leadership to make our community whole again. Mr. Dan Carpenter is someone with integrity, civility and independence.


Additionally, reject the ilk of Adam Hill. Reject people like John Shoals, Erik Howell, Richard Waller, Caren Ray and Kristian Barneich. We now know that this crowd is more than willing to sell us down the drain to their developer buddies, and they are incapable of passing the necessary water moratorium so residents can weather the draught.


We deserve leadership, so vote Mr. Dan Carpenter on Election Day, Tuesday, November 8th.


Thanks everyone!


Josey


slojustice

I am surprised that with Adam’s record of constituent abuse, the margin would be more like 30%! What is wrong with people when they continue to vote for corrupt politicians like Adam.


Mariposa

No matter what – some people cannot bring themselves to vote for anyone other than an incumbent.


Dave

Since when is a 7-point lead considered “slight”?


I’d say that’s a pretty solid margin.


Wonder how Adam is taking the news.


jhagstro

With the CCN margin of error at 5.5 points, the actual poll results is a legitimate lead of 1.5 points. I’m glad to see that the margin or error, which is bigger than a number of polls, was factored into CCN’s reporting of Carpenter’s lead. That way people will continue to realize that the election is close and their vote is important.


San Louie

Nope, the arithmetic doesn’t work out that way. Statistically the margin of error isn’t going to fall completely on one candidate or the other.


If the poll was correctly constructed and executed with no biases, the best we can do is split the margin of error, giving Mr. Carpenter a corrected 3.75% lead. Still quite substantial.


south

It is remarkably substantial given that Hill is the incumbent. Incumbency in and of itself is worth 50%.


San Louie

Indeed… I suspect Hill is responding by gaining a few more pounds…


what the

Pounds of what?


Mariposa

Arrogance + Lies + Deception + Rudeness


San Louie

+ chin blubber.


Pelican1

Here is a video of Adam’s reelection team “working” on the numbers.


avidreader

Well, a refreshing bit of news! Let’s hope this holds up and Dan brings it home. What a wonderful world it would be without sleazy Adam Hill sitting on the dais. Hard to believe there could be so many folks undecided but hopefully their conscience will drive them to vote for Dan!


miles archer

You know you’re only replacing one ‘politician’ for another. If you think electing Carpenter to office is like some magic pill you’ve got a cold slap of reality ahead.


fhill123

Magic pill, no but a heck of a lot better than that tub of self-serving goo!


San Louie

Why do you have to crap all over good news? Mr. Carpenter is orders of magnitude better then the malignant incumbent. There are no “magic pills” at this level but electing Carpenter would be a huge step in the right direction.


Pelican1

One pill makes you larger

And one pill makes you small

And the ones that Adam gives us

Don’t do anything at all

Go ask Dan

When when he’s won it all


And if you go chasing medallions

And you know you’re going to fall

Tell ’em a hookah-smoking supervisor

Has given you the call

Call Adam

When he’s nothing at all……