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Is global warming responsible for California’s destructive storms?

January 19, 2023

By JOSH FRIEDMAN

This month’s storms that wreaked havoc on California, especially the Central Coast, do not appear to have been caused by global warming, climate scientists say. [LA Times]

Scientists are still studying the size and severity of the recent storms. But, initial assessments suggest the destructive nature of the storms had more to do with California’s historic drought-to-deluge cycles, mountainous topography and aging flood infrastructure than with greenhouse gas emissions.

“Assuming that these storms were driven by global warming would be like assuming an athlete who breaks a record was on steroids,” said Alexander Gershunov, a climate scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

The series of atmospheric rivers that pummeled California this month seems akin to other major storms that struck the state at least once a decade since researchers began keeping records in the 1800s.

Southern California experienced the “Great flood of 1938,” which killed more than 100 people and left thousands homeless. Other intense storms occurred in 1964, 1969, 1982, 1995 and 2005. In 2017, a series of atmospheric rivers eroded the main and emergency spillways at Oroville Dam, forcing thousands of residents to evacuate.

Nonetheless, some climate scientists predict more frequent mega-storms fueled by warming oceans and a thirstier atmosphere, resulting from global warming.


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“I have spoken of the rich years when the rainfall was plentiful. But there were dry years too, and they put a terror on the valley. The water came in a thirty-year cycle. There would be five or six wet and wonderful years when there might be nineteen to twenty-five inches of rain, and the land would shout with grass. Then would come six or seven pretty good years of twelve to sixteen inches of rain. And then the dry years would come, and sometimes there would be only seven or eight inches of rain.”


John Steinbeck, writing of the Salinas Valley, from East of Eden, 1952


I’m afraid the “wet and wonderful years” seem to be few and far between, the “pretty good years” non-existent and the “dry years” more prevalent than we would like.


But, God Bless January 2023 for bringing the state plenty of nurturing water.


16

The continuing western US climate pattern changes is the macro-event that is concerning not a micro-event rain. And given the behaviors of elsewhere in the world, climate change IS inevitable and IS occurring (whether minds can recognize and understand it or not). So, what infrastructure investments do we need to make to offset the effects? What water consumption patterns should we change? How can we best prepare for wild fires? We need solid thinking about the inevitable, and the inevitable is not a doom and gloom scenario. The climate change denialisms and eco-eschatologies are getting equally boring.


-43

Invest in Planned parenthood. Give tax breaks for not producing babies would be a start. Fewer people = less offsets.


-42

Really? My goodness.

By the way, unfortunately we as taxpayers already fund Planned Parenthood and their unprecedented destruction.

Fewer innocent children = less adults to tax and fleece for their “carbon footprint” hoax so many self-righteous environmentalists like Al Gore and other elitist of the left preach while flying all over the world bloviating falsely and getting millions for it. Again, mostly American taxpayer money.

Yea, invest in Planned Parenthood, that will help save us. Right. Wow!!!


How about investing in capturing all this rainfall that’s running into the ocean? Water is life, are some against that as well?


24

“precedented destruction.”


Who can count all of the dead children in the picture?


“How many deaths have been caused by religion? Here’s a list of religiously motivated wars and genocides and their death tolls. Let me know if I missed any!


The Crusades: 6,000,000

Thirty Years War: 11,500,000

French Wars of Religion: 4,000,000

Second Sudanese Civil War: 2,000,000

Lebanese Civil War: 250,000

Muslim Conquests of India: 80,000,000

Congolese Genocide (King Leopold II): 13,000,000

Armenian Genocide: 1,500,000

Rwandan Genocide: 800,000

Eighty Years’ War: 1,000,000

Nigerian Civil War: 1,000,000

Great Peasants’ Revolt: 250,000

First Sudanese Civil War: 1,000,000

Jewish Diaspora (Not Including the Holocaust): 1,000,000

The Holocaust (Jewish and Homosexual Deaths): 6,500,000

Islamic Terrorism Since 2000: 150,000

Iraq War: 500,000

US Western Expansion (Justified by “Manifest Destiny”):20,000,000

Atlantic Slave Trade (Justified by Christianity): 14,000,000

Aztec Human Sacrifice: 80,000

AIDS deaths in Africa largely due to opposition to condoms: 30,000,000

Spanish Inquisition: 5,000″


“bloviating falsely ”


“The Modern GOP Is Built on Lies


House Judiciary Committee chair Jerrold Nadler told The New Yorker, “It never occurred to me that an American political party would degrade itself to an authoritarian political party where anything goes, no matter what…. I never thought an American political party could get as bad as now, where they completely don’t care how bad the crimes are.”


-20

It appears basic math is tough for some people. Earth with 5 Billion people was a much nicer place to live in. It was bountiful and beautiful. The point is hard to argue against.

Not having babies doesn’t mean aborting them. Fewer babies conceived means fewer babies in general, and fewer babies at risk of being aborted in the long run. A concept that many here find hard to conceive ;-)


-10

HAHAHA Excellent wordplay, Master Yan.


-3

Forty years ago, following the storms of ’83 that destroyed Avila pier, the climate scientists predicted an ice age was imminent.


23

Remember, the 1969 flood was supposed to have been a “Once in a 100 years flood!”…until 1973.


36

Way to tell us you have no idea how statistics and probability work… You could have two “100 year” floods back to back. It’s not like nature sets a clock and decides “oh it’s been 100 years, time to have another one!” The 100 year figure is all about probability and nothing more.


-4

Thank you for writing this Josh, somebody needed to say it. Governor Newsom gets hung-up on terminology like “Bomb-Cyclones” and “Atmospheric Rivers” as proof that this year’s weather is somehow unprecedented and must be due to climate change. New names to hype old (infrequent but not unfamiliar) weather patterns do not a climate catastrophe make. I’ve lived in California since 1969, and have experienced far more extreme weather than this. Facts instead of fear mongering, this is why we love Cal Coast News.


56

I remember the flooding in SLO in 1973 , Madonna road at lower Higuera street was a river with vehicles floating multiple blocks away from where they were originally parked .Oroville Dam scare a few years ago was employee caused .The damage the Oroville Dam sustained was from the lack of the dam gates being routinely checked for smooth operation and lack of inspections and periodic maintenance also lack of training of new employees as to know at what rate to open the dam gates and how many dam gates are opened at the same time .The damage to Oroville Dam was caused by the sticky and stuck gates opening too fast and too many gates opened at the same time , the rushing water from the gates that were improperly opened destroyed the dam spillways , the amount of rain had nothing to do with the damage incurred to Oroville Dam ..In the mountains of California locals have always stated if you don’t like the weather give it a bit of time , the weather will change .How come Hawaii never complains about climate change ? Why would United States be suffering climate change , but not Canada or Mexico or South America or Russia etc etc etc ….Does not make sense , except if a person has invested in alternative energy or transportation stocks .They will scream climate change 24 hrs/365 days …


45

The answer is NO!!! This is California weather. This isn’t unprecedented. I’m at the age where I remember the winters of 1969,1972 as a young man. In 1982,1995, 2005, and now 2023 as an adult, with very similar rainfall. It’s not unusual, it’s actually a normal cycle.

The long-range models are showing a developing El Nino for late this Spring that will roll into our following winter. At this time, it’s forecast to be a moderate to strong one. El Nino winters notoriously bring very heavy rainfall for us. We’ve been in a La Nina pattern the last couple of years, along with below normal rainfall in the west for the last 10 years with a couple of exceptions.

Things are evening out as they always do in the weather. It will most likely be a cooler summer with more rain chances, and a early start to our rainy season in the Fall of 2023. Get prepared now. This year will be followed by a wet winter next year as well.


58

It was February of 1973, not 72, I had 15 inches of water in my bedroom at the corner of…….. yeah nobody wants to remember that one.


13

February is the traditional flood month.


9

California natives know that drought and overly heavy drought breaking storms are the norm in California… its been this way my entire life…


65

Wow. The storms weren’t even that bad… I am sincerely disappointed by how fragile society has become.


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